2023 :ICAO predicts FULL growth in demand for Air Travel.

February 15, 2023

2023, the ICAO predicts a full and sustained recovery and growth in demand for air travel.

Montréal Using cutting-edge big data analytics, ICAO predicts that by the first quarter of 2023, aviation passenger demand will have quickly returned to pre-pandemic levels on the majority of routes, with year-end increase of about 3% over 2019 levels.

According to Salvatore Sciacchitano, president of the ICAO Council, “ensuring the safe, secure, and sustainable recovery of air services will be key to restoring aviation’s ability to act as a catalyst for sustainable development at the local, national, and global levels, and will therefore be vital to countries’ recovery from the broader impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar stated, “The air passenger forecasts ICAO is providing today build on the solid momentum towards recovery in 2022, as previously assessed by ICAO statistical analysis.” Governments have agreed to a target of no accident fatalities by 2030 and no carbon emissions by 2050 through ICAO, and both objectives will continue to be crucial in determining the priorities for ICAO’s implementation assistance programmes.

In comparison to 2021, the number of passengers carried by air climbed by an estimated 47% in 2022, while revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) increased by almost 70% during the same period, primarily as a result of the swift recovery of major international routes.

According to earlier ICAO forecasts, the significant rebound in air passenger demand has led to 2022 passenger counts and revenues being anticipated to have reached roughly 68% of 2019 levels, or 74% of pre-pandemic levels. According to current forecasts, passenger aircraft numbers in service in 2022 will reflect the total traffic recovery at 75% of pre-pandemic levels.

Airbus and Boeing, two prominent manufacturers, saw an increase in 2022 aircraft orders and deliveries of 53% for orders and 20% for deliveries. The number of orders in 2022 was higher than it has been since 2019, indicating a rebound in demand for aircraft.Although there has been very slight growth since the pre-pandemic level, current predictions for air freight in 2022 are consistent with 2021 levels. However, given the slowing of global economic growth, it is anticipated that the rate of growth for air cargo would be slower in 2023. Despite this, long-term air cargo growth is predicted to be consistent with the previously estimated trend, showing significant long-term growth.

After experiencing financial losses for three straight years, airlines are anticipated to achieve operating profitability in the fourth quarter of 2023. In 2024, the demand for airline passengers is anticipated to increase by about 4% from 2019. According to the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), this equates to an increase of 0.7% from 2019 to 2024.